Monday, November 07, 2016

2016 Election Prediction



Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Prediction Time! Here is my prediction for tomorrow's election. 

Clinton gets 323 electoral votes powered by close wins in North Carolina and Florida and is elected the 45th President of the United States! 

Nevada also goes to Hillary Clinton on the strength of early voting and strong support from latino voters. Even if NC and/or Florida go for Trump, Hillary gets to 270 with wins in the western states of Colorado and Nevada. 

Ultimately, Trump's lack of a ground game to get out the vote makes the election far less close than it would have been otherwise. 

I also predict the Senate ends in a 50-50 tie. I think the Democrats win Senate races in PA - McGinty; WI - Feingold; IL - Duckworth; and one of the 3 Senate toss-ups either Bayh in Indiana, Hassan in New Hampshire, and/or Kander in Missouri win their races against GOP incumbents. With a 50-50 tie Vice President Kaine will cast the deciding vote for Democratic control of the Senate. 

The House of Representatives stays in GOP hands, but with Dems picking up about 15 seats and having more Democratic votes cast for Congress than GOP votes, but the GOP retains the majority due to redistricting lines of Congressional Districts. 

 That's my federal level predictions. What do you think? And please, go VOTE!

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Outrageous Outrage


So we have outrage over the killing of the gorilla (Harambe) at the Cincinnati Zoo. We have outrage over the child’s mom for apparently looking the other way and losing track of her child for a moment. We have outrage over bathrooms. We have outrage over the outrage and over so many things.

But it doesn't seem like we have outrage over children fending for themselves while their moms and dads work two jobs just to barely make ends meet.

We don't have outrage when children live in substandard housing because their parents pay predatory interest rates for their mortgage or pay rent to landlords who don't fix leaking roofs.

We don't have outrage when children go to bed hungry (or when Congress votes to cut school nutrition and SNAP programs).

We don't have outrage when a parent battling addiction, often due to drugs prescribed by their doctor, can't get the treatment they need to be healthy and sober.

The dangerous threat to our children is not a gorilla. It is not a stranger using the bathroom in Target.
The real threat to our children and their future is our system of policies and systems that leave too many of our children (and their families) out in the cold.

Instead of blaming each other and being outraged at the most recent sensational headline, it's time we enact laws and public policies that remediate child and family poverty. It’s time that we increase efforts to meet children’s basic needs. It's time that we develop partnerships with families and respect culturally diverse practices. It’s time that we address our flawed systems of racial and socioeconomic disparities in this country.

It's time that we build public will and grow social norms that encourage giving of ourselves to benefit those less fortunate. It’s time that we offer help when we can give it, and it’s time to ensure that we get help when we need it.

It's time that we stop pointing fingers and start lending a hand.

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

More Biscuits. Fewer Guns.

I am so dismayed at the news that there has been yet another mass shooting earlier today. This time in San Bernadino, California. It has been almost 3 years since the tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary, and our collective response has been to ignore the problem and pray for the victims.  It is a national disgrace.

Opponents to gun control say the answer to this violence is more guns. Even though the United States has more guns than any other nation in the world and not surprisingly has the highest number of deaths involving the use of a firearm. Other countries have fewer guns and fewer deaths. We have more guns and more deaths. The availability of guns is not making people safer.

To illustrate just how ubiquitous guns are in our state, I took a look at the directory of Federal Firearms Licensed Dealers in my home state of West Virginia. Did you know that there are 1,182 licensed dealers? Thats more than 11 gun shops and gun dealers for every McDonald's in our state and more than 23 dealers for every Tudor's Biscuit World.

There is something very wrong about this picture.



We need more biscuits and fewer guns.

#GunControl #355 #WV #ProtectChildrenNotGuns #SanBernadino

Dear Santa Claus...

A photo posted by Emily McDowell Studio (@emilymcdowell_) on
#endgunviolence ‪#‎notonemore‬ ‪#‎sanbernardino‬ #protectchildrennotguns